Investment Opportunities - Don Fishback - ODDS

ProgramCritique.com Review:

Don Fishback developed the ODDS™ Probability Cones and is also the man behind ODDS option trading methodology. He contributed significantly to option analysis, applied the concept of price volatility, and delineated its influence on the probability laws. ODDS methodology uses the most common assumption of option pricing model and when you use this model, you are unconsciously making the same probability assumption ODDS uses. 

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It is assumed that the financial markets operate randomly while the prices show a normal distribution. Thus, studying the changes in market price for a considerable time would reveal that the price distribution resemble a bell-curve where the x-axis denotes standard deviation while the y-axis relates to price. Volatility equals one standard deviation and this property helps in creating the ODDS Probability Cones used in MetaStock. Fishback’s concept may serve you well if you are an option trader.  

If you need a visual guide to know about the likely range of future prices ODDS Probability Cones may be great help to you. They depend on three factors namely the would-be volatility in prices, the projected periods and the probability percentage. The greater volatility of the prices results in probable wider range of prices in future and ultimately culminates in wider cones. The more the noted volatility the greater the chances of a considerable price move. While in greater likelihood, the calculated price either will continue at the same pace or will rise. The cones have a tendency of widening from the apex as with the increase of time the chances of a significant movement in prices strengthen. 

Such assessments were devised to assist option traders in carving a working strategy. When you analyze from the probability standpoint, it is better for an option trader to sell options with strikes that are placed outside the cones and buy the ones under it. Thus, Don Fishback and his ODDS Probability Cones are significant for option traders and they should understand the mechanism thoroughly before venturing the field.

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